Q&A: Macrotrends in Asia with Raf Manji

Economic growth rates across Asia are higher in countries with a lower medium age, such as Cambodia (pictured) where the medium age is under 30

Firstly, demographics – what are the key demographic trends we’re seeing across the region and what do they mean for economic growth?  

What I think is really interesting from a demographic perspective are country median ages, which are incredibly varied across the region.

A younger median age tends to be correlated with a higher economic growth rate. For instance, in Japan the median age is nearly 50 and that is quite incredible.

It's no surprise that Japan is the outlier economy, and it's showing us what a mature economy looks like as people get a bit older and people consume a lot less. Japan’s GDP growth remains very stagnant, while its high rate of individual private savings sustains its very high public debt.  

In mature economies such as Japan, average ages are increasing, and consumption is down

On the other hand, if we look at India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Cambodia, Laos, and Malaysia the median age is 30 or below. That is quite significant.

Malaysia’s GDP growth (over five percent in 2024) is still quite strong and their incomes are quite high. So, Malaysia is a very interesting economy in terms of whether it can break out of this middle-income trap.

Thailand is struggling a little bit with its GDP growth lagging behind many of its Southeast Asia peers, which is a surprise, but the median age of Thailand is 40 compared to Malaysia's 30. 

In the 1990s Hong Kong was Asia’s key finance hub. Where are the main finance centres now, and where are they likely to be in the future? 

Hong Kong has started to rebound as a financial hub after the Chinese crackdown on democracy protesters that marked 2019/20

You’ve got Singapore, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Tokyo. Interestingly, Hong Kong is starting to come back into play. There was a lot of capital that left Hong Kong over the last five-to-ten years that's now starting to return.

Viet Nam is looking to set up a new international finance centre in Ho Chi Minh, which is very exciting.

When we think about finance in the West, it's still based on a post-war consensus, the Bretton Woods system, which is essentially underpinned by the US. Asia, now, is starting to think, “We can do some of this stuff ourselves.”

And there's some really, really interesting stuff going on in the tech, blockchain and crypto spaces that we should be watching closely. 

What is the next 25 years likely to hold for Asia and how do countries like New Zealand engage with it?  

A lot has changed in Asia and the world since 2020, with the balance of power shifting from the West to the East

We're already 25 years into the Asian Century and time is moving pretty quickly. What does the next 25 years hold? Well, I think we can see some of these trends continuing. There is still huge growth and huge growth potential: Asia has a four-billion-person population, and a lot of young people.

There is a very positive development mindset, and the people have incredible energy, even in places where they've had terrible conflict like Cambodia. You talk to people, and they’re thinking about getting ahead and making stuff happen, doing business, educating their children.

I think Asia has become much more sure of itself and its operating systems. It now looks at the West and thinks, “Well, the West is actually failing. The West is going backwards.”  

For countries like New Zealand, where I think we're still slightly unsure of the vision and values of this East-West mix, it's going to be very fascinating.  

You've noted the US is becoming increasingly transactional in its approach, do you see this happening in Asia too? 

Raf: "I think we're seeing a shift from multilateralism to transactionalism. "

Trump's remarks in Saudi Arabia, where he said he’s not interested in exporting liberal democracy anymore, are very telling. The point he was making was, “I'm happy to trade with you, but you do your own thing.” I think that is a really, really big mind shift. I think we're seeing a shift from multilateralism to transactionalism.  

This might be being led by the US, but we have seen signs of it in Asia recently too, with the Malaysian prime minister (and ASEAN chair) visiting Moscow, and Indonesia saying it won't buy as much oil from Singapore.

This transactionalism has the ability to drive wedges in Asia, so that's going to be something to keep an eye on. China’s President Xi Jinping has been in Cambodia and now Viet Nam shoring up support there. So you can see some pressures on the multilateral system. 

What has been on your Asia reading list recently?  

The Dawn of Eurasia by Bruno Macaes, a former Portuguese politician who I met in Jaipur in 2020 and again in 2025. He’s a prolific writer and argues that over time, Eurasia as a continent will come back together. It's fascinating to drill down and see what is going on in a lot of these countries when it comes to their connective infrastructure. 

Another is Living in the Asian Century: An Undiplomatic Memoir by Kishore Mahbubani, a former Singaporean diplomat who I met at the Jaipur Literature Festival earlier this year. It’s a great story about Singapore and what they did over the last 50 years. 

About the author  

Raf Manji is an expert on New Zealand-Asia relations, particularly in trade and economic relations, climate change and sustainability. He has worked as an investment banker, in local government and in the non-profit sector. Raf holds a degree in economics and social studies from the University of Manchester and a master's in international law and politics from the University of Canterbury.  He is a 2025 Asia New Zealand Foundation Non-resident Domestic Fellow.  

The Foundation's Asia in Focus initiative publishes expert insights and analysis on issues across Asia, as well as New Zealand’s evolving relationship with the region.