How do New Zealanders' views of the Indo-Pacific compare to Australians' in 2025? 

Two surveys released last month shed insight into how New Zealanders and Australians view the world and their places in it: The Asia New Zealand Foundation’s annual Perceptions of Asia survey and the Lowy Institute Poll, published by the Sydney-based think tank.

According to the surveys, New Zealanders and Australians both see each other as their country’s closest friend, but how closely do their views align when it comes to the rest of the Indo-Pacific and its common challenges?  

Who are New Zealand's best friends in the region? 

New Zealanders and Australians both identify the other as their country’s best friend, a result that has been consistent since both surveys introduced the question.  

Australia is also New Zealanders’ most trusted foreign power, with 72 percent of New Zealanders saying they have high trust in Australia to act responsibly in the world. The power New Zealanders have the most trust in, however, is New Zealand itself, with 75 percent expressing high trust.

It’s a view Australians share. New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Luxon comes out on top as the world leader Australians have the most confidence in to do the right thing in world affairs, with 63 percent expressing at least some confidence. Luxon scores higher than current Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (60 percent), as does French President Emmanual Macron (61 percent).  

Beyond Australasia, New Zealanders and Australians express strikingly similar sentiment towards countries across the region. Japan remains the closest Asian friend (and most trusted key power) in the eyes of both countries, followed by Singapore and South Korea. Over half of New Zealanders (54 percent) see India as a friend, while India also scores a solid 51 degrees on Lowy’s ‘feelings thermometer’.   

Australians feel warmer to neighbouring Indonesia (a balmy 56 degrees on the feelings thermometer compared to a 47 percent friend rating), although New Zealanders are feeling increasingly positive towards Southeast Asia. New Zealanders’ friend perceptions of Southeast Asian countries across the board jumped an average of more than eight percentage points from the previous year.  

Perceptions of China fluctuating 

While Australian attitudes towards China appear to be tentatively thawing, New Zealanders’ perceptions of China are fluctuating following recent events. Trust in the major power remains low on both sides of the Tasman. 

Slightly more Australians now view China as an economic partner (50 percent) than a security threat (47 percent), a reversal of the previous year when 53 percent of Australians saw it as a security threat and 44 percent as an economic partner. However, China scores just a tepid 37 degrees on the poll’s feelings thermometer up three degrees from the previous year but still well below pre-2019 polling results, where China consistently scored above 50 degrees. 

New Zealanders’ perceptions of China have been fluctuating

In November 2024, New Zealanders were also more likely to view China as a friend (38 percent) than a threat (28 percent), continuing a trend from the previous year’s survey where perceptions of China tipped into net positive after a sharp drop in June 2022. However, things had changed by March 2025 when the Foundation carried out a snap mini-poll following China and the Cook Islands striking a comprehensive strategic partnership deal and China’s live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea.

According to the March mini-poll, just 21 percent of New Zealanders viewed China as a friend while 32 percent saw it as a threat. Previous mini-poll spikes in threat perceptions have tended to be temporary and China watchers will be waiting to see if this holds true in the next survey.  

Only 20 percent of Australians express having any degree of trust in China to act responsibly in the world, similarly around just 15 percent of New Zealanders report having high or very high trust in China.  

Feelings towards the United States plummet  

Feelings towards the United States on both sides of the Tasman have plummeted. 

Lowy’s feelings thermometer shows the United States dropping nine degrees to 50 degrees from the previous poll. Despite the sharp decline, Australian attitudes towards the United States have been on the downward trajectory for some time – in 2022 the United States came in at 65 degrees, already eight degrees below its peak of 73 degrees in 2015. 

New Zealanders’ friend perceptions of the United States have dropped even further. In November 2024, 61 percent of New Zealanders identified the United States as a friend, down four percentage points from the previous year. By March 2025, however, just 32 percent of New Zealanders felt the United States was a friend, a record low and the first time an equal proportion of New Zealanders consider the United States a friend and a threat. 

Just over a third of Australians (36 percent) express any degree of trust in the United States to act responsibly in the world, down from 56 percent last year. New Zealanders have even less trust in the United States, with just 21 percent of New Zealanders reporting having trust in the major power in March 2025.   

Both surveys took place just after Trump’s Oval Office meeting with Ukraine’s President Zelensky, US tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico coming into effect, and the halting of US aid to Ukraine.  

What are the biggest threats?  

Australians see cyber-attacks from other countries as the most pressing threat to national interests in the next 10 years, with 65 percent deeming cyber-attacks a critical threat.

By contrast, cyber-attacks come in at number three for New Zealanders (47 percent highly concerned), while fake news and misinformation top the list, with 53 percent saying they are highly concerned about the spread of misinformation. The latter is not included as an option in Lowy’s survey.   

Military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan is seen as the next biggest threat by Australians, with almost two thirds identifying it as a critical threat.

For New Zealanders, however, military conflict between major powers in Asia ranks just 11th out of 13 named potential threats, with only a third of New Zealanders saying they are highly concerned about it. Instead, New Zealanders rate climate change as the second biggest threat to national interests, with almost half saying they are highly concerned about its impact in the next 10 years.

For Australians, climate change comes in at number five, although a similar proportion of Australians and New Zealanders rate it as a critical threat/issue of high concern. 

A severe global economic downturn is the third biggest worry for Australians (58 percent saying they see it as a critical threat), but ranks eighth among New Zealanders, with 39 percent saying they are highly concerned.  

North Korea’s nuclear programme comes in at number four for Australians, but only at number seven for New Zealanders.

At number four for New Zealanders is the rise of authoritarian systems of government, with 43 percent expressing high concern. The rise of authoritarianism isn’t included as an option in the Australia poll.  

Similarly, while pandemics fall towards the end of both countries’ rankings, Australians remain more concerned with 51 percent deeming the spread of infectious diseases a critical threat compared to a third of New Zealanders who say they are highly concerned about pandemics.   

One area that New Zealanders and Australians do converge on is terrorism and violent extremism, which lands in sixth place (out of 10) for Australians and seventh for New Zealanders.  

Most Australians support greater defence spending, most New Zealanders don't

Given the greater concern Australians place on the possibility military conflict in Asia, it’s not surprising that Australians are considerably more likely to be in favour of increasing national defence spending.

Fifty-one percent of Australians support increasing defence spending, while 37 percent favour keeping it the same. Ten percent say defence spending should be reduced. Australia currently spends about two percent of its GDP on defence.  

Australian, New Zealand, Singaporian and Malaysian navies take part in exercises in the South China Sea in 2018

Although 37 percent of New Zealanders also say the government currently spends about the right amount on defence, only 35 percent  favour increasing defence spending, while 11 percent say the government should spend less.

Sixteen percent of New Zealanders say they don’t know what their view is when it comes to defence spending compared to just two percent of Australians.

New Zealand currently spends less than 1.5 percent of its GDP on defence, but in April (after the survey was conducted) committed to hitting two percent in the next eight years. 

Democratic values versus economic interests  

For the first time, New Zealanders were asked what should New Zealand prioritise when its democratic values and economic interests are in tension in its Asia relationships. The results reveal that New Zealanders are evenly split, with 40 percent selecting economic interests and 40 percent selecting democratic values.  

Australians were last asked the question in 2020, at which time 60 percent said that democratic values ought to be considered more important. When the question was first put to Australians in 2007, however, 74 percent said democratic values should take precedence while just 18 said economic interests, indicating the gap is narrowing. 

Why do they differ?  

Australians and New Zealanders express similar sentiments towards Indo-Pacific countries, so why do their concerns and priorites in the region appear to differ so considerably? 

There are of course potentially infinite reasons as to why New Zealanders and Australians have such different international concerns. Survey timing and the phrasing of questions also impact results. But perhaps most significant is that despite a mutual affinity and perceptions of other countries, the two have different geographies, geopolitics, demographic makeups, as well as economic and societal challenges.   

While two other recent surveys – Ipsos’s issues monitor of Australia and New Zealand – show that cost of living and inflation top both countries’ domestic concerns, the record number of New Zealanders moving across the ditch highlights the relative strength of Australia’s economy – and its higher average incomes. This may partially explain New Zealand's even split between economic interests and democratic values and the unwillingness of New Zealanders to invest in defence relative to other (domestic) priorities.

Another set of comparable surveys shows that New Zealand also scores far lower on social cohesion and other wellbeing outcomes than Australia. This lack of public trust may shed insight into why fake news and misinformation top New Zealand’s list of concerns.  

The surveys may be on how New Zealanders and Australians see the world, but it’s important to remember that these perceptions are shaped by issues at home too.  

About the surveys 

The 2025 Lowy Institute Poll was conducted between 3 and 16 March 2025 and based on a representative survey of 2,117 Australian residents.  

The 2025 New Zealanders’ Perceptions of Asia and Asian Peoples survey was conducted between 6 November and 4 December 2024 and based on a representative survey of 2,300 New Zealanders. A supplementary mini-poll was conducted between 6 and 10 March 2025 of 1,000 New Zealanders.

The Foundation's Asia in Focus initiative publishes expert insights and analysis on issues across Asia, as well as New Zealand’s evolving relationship with the region.