New Zealanders see China's technological advancement as key to its future – new poll

Will China or the US win the AI race?

The poll of 1,016 New Zealanders, which was carried out by Research New Zealand between 20 and 24 November 2025, found that just over half of respondents (51 percent) think that China will be more important to New Zealand’s future in the next 10 years than the United States. Just 31 percent said the United States will be more important, while 19 percent answered that they did not know.

 When it comes to New Zealand’s future access to advanced technology and artificial intelligence, 35 percent of New Zealanders surveyed said China will be more important, 30 percent said China and the US would be equally important, while 19 percent said the United States will be more important.

The results come as New Zealanders express continued low levels of trust in both countries – and even lower levels of trust in both countries’ leaders.

They also echo findings from Australia. According to Sydney-based think tank the Lowy Institute, 56 percent of Australians believe China will be the world’s most important power in the next 10 years, while just 27 percent said the United States. (Interestingly, a narrow majority of Australians (52 percent) still believe the United States is ultimately more important to Australia than China (43 percent) – at least for now.)

Further, 58 percent of Australians think China will be more advanced at developing and using the world’s leading technology in the next 10 years, while just 12 percent said the United States will be the world’s technology leader. Twentynine percent believed China and the United States would be on par.

Competition for AI dominance?

China and the US are competing for AI dominance, but they're not the only country in the race

Both countries have announced plans to turbocharge the development of their respective AI industries and advanced technology sectors.

In August last year, China’s central government announced (in Mandarin; an English translation is available here) its “AI Plus” (人工智能+) policy directive, which calls for local governments to advance the integration of AI across all aspects of the country’s economy and society. The directive states that by 2030, the “intelligent economy” will be an important pillar in China’s economic growth and development.

The plan also notes the need to cooperate on AI global governance systems, including through the United Nations and other international organisations. (Alongside this BRICS leaders have released a declaration calling for collaborative governance and equitable access across countries regardless of level of economic development.)

An action plan to further boost the development of the country’s industrial internet platforms was announced earlier this month.

Similarly, in July 2025, the Trump administration published its “AI Action Plan” which likens the competition for global dominance in AI to the space race and calls for the US to accelerate AI innovation, develop AI infrastructure and “lead in international AI diplomacy and security”. The plan also includes a brief section on countering Chinese influence when it comes to global AI governance. “The AI race,” the plan contends, “is America’s to win.”

Both documents advocate for the development and distribution of open-source AI models. “We need to ensure America has leading open models founded on American values,” notes the Trump administration's plan. 

China continues to be constrained by difficulties in sourcing the advanced chips required for AI technologies

While China has made considerable gains in AI innovation in recent years, most notably with the release of DeepSeek a year ago, it is often noted that China still lacks the advanced chips many experts believe are needed to train and develop large-language models and their ecosystems.

Others, meanwhile, have cautioned against buying into the “myth” of the AI race, noting the two countries appear to be eyeing different ends. “The United States and China ... are not converging on the same path to AI leadership, nor are they competing across a single dimension,” writes Colin Kahl for Foreign Affairs. Analysis from earlier this month also found that below the political level, the two countries’ researchers are continuing to collaborate closely on key areas.

Of course, China and the United States are not the only major players. India, too, is seeking to position itself as an AI leader with the development of smaller scale but more cost-efficient AI models.

Implications for New Zealand

Experts have cautioned that while competition in AI may spearhead innovation, such rapid development also brings with it a plethora of risks and ethical issues. These include privacy risks, enabling greater surveillance, spreading disinformation, and exacerbating existing inequalities. Proper oversight is essential if societies are to realise AI’s potential benefits while offsetting its risks.

New Zealand released its own AI strategy in July 2025. The strategy states that norms around AI should be set internationally, ensuring that New Zealand “has a seat and a voice at the table”.

Foreign policy watchers have observed that as multilateralism continues to face fire, and trust in major powers continues to wane, “minilateral” fora made up of small groups of likeminded small and middle-sized may play an increasingly important role in the setting of international regulatory standards and norms. It remains to be seen if New Zealand and other small and middle powers will seek to drive norms around AI through such channels.

Given the spread of misinformation and disinformation tops the list of New Zealanders’ greatest concerns when it comes to the country’s vital interests, a practical first step is boosting New Zealanders’ AI literacy, ensuring they engage with such tools and content critically.  

  The Foundation's Asia in Focus initiative publishes expert insights and analysis on issues across Asia, as well as New Zealand’s evolving relationship with the region.