New Zealanders increasingly distrustful of China and the US

Both Xi and Trump are widely distrusted by New Zealanders

Comment: As the United States faces heat over its handling of Russia’s war on Ukraine, and China-Japan relations sour, new survey results show that New Zealanders are continuing to lose faith in major powers to act responsibly in the world.

According to the poll of 1000 New Zealanders commissioned by the Asia New Zealand Foundation between November 20-24, just 21 percent of New Zealanders have high or very high trust in the United States to act responsibly in the world – a result unchanged from the Foundation’s March 2025 mini-poll.  

New Zealanders’ trust in China, meanwhile, has dropped two percentage points from March, with just 14 percent expressing high/very high trust in China.  

When it comes to these countries’ leaders, China’s Xi Jinping fares slightly better than his US counterpart, though the results are poor for both. Thirty-one percent of New Zealanders have at least some confidence in Xi to act responsibly in the world, compared to 29 percent who say the same about Donald Trump. Almost half of New Zealanders (49 percent) say they have no confidence in Trump at all, while 29 percent express no confidence in Xi.  

Among the countries included, New Zealanders have the lowest trust in Russia, with just 10 percent expressing high/very high trust and almost three quarters (74 percent) saying they have low/very low trust. With the exception of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Vladimir Putin is New Zealanders’ least trusted leader.

There is some good news in the latest results. New Zealanders have significantly greater confidence in regional powers and their leaders to do the right thing on the world stage.  

Perhaps unsurprisingly – and consistent with the Foundation’s annual Perceptions of Asia survey – Australia is New Zealanders’ most trusted power, with 69 percent saying they have high or very high trust in our neighbour across the Tasman. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is also New Zealanders’ most trusted leader: 72 percent say they have at least some confidence in him.

Following Australia, New Zealanders have the greatest trust in Japan (56 percent) and the United Kingdom (55 percent), with trust in the former overtaking the latter for the first time in 28 years of Asia New Zealand Foundation polling.

Kiwis have reasonably high confidence in Japan’s recently appointed prime minister, Sanae Takaichi

Kiwis also have marginally more confidence in Japan’s recently appointed prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, than in the United Kingdom’s Keir Starmer. Sixty-seven percent express at least some confidence in Takaichi, while almost two thirds (62 percent) have some confidence in Starmer. Lawrence Wong, the prime minister of Singapore, has also won the confidence of a majority of New Zealanders (57 percent).

There is slightly more ambivalence towards others in the region – some likely informed by observed behaviours and some by lack of knowledge and familiarity with the countries and their leaders.  

Thirty-nine percent of New Zealanders are neutral with regard to whether India would act responsibly in the world, with another 43 percent expressing low trust. Indonesia comes in slightly higher, with almost half of the respondents (48 percent) expressing neutral trust.  

And while around a third of New Zealanders report having at least some confidence in Indonesia’s Prabowo Subianto, the Philippines’ Bongbong Marcos and India’s Narendra Modi, over 20 percent say they don’t know if they have confidence in these leaders or not.

What does this all mean?  

Moving beyond the obvious headlines about the US and China, these results underscore the importance of New Zealand’s middle and smaller power relationships at a time when trust in the world’s biggest powers to uphold international rules and norms wanes.  

While small and middle-sized powers are clearly not going to replace the economic and military might of the US and China, the November poll shows New Zealanders are worried about how these bigger powers are defying international law and norms in pursuit of their own national interests – interests that are not only divergent from each other but also the interests of many other countries who rely on law and norms for their trade, security and development.    

Or to put this another way, these breaches threaten small countries that rely on the international order to restrain military adventurism. Russia’s war with Ukraine tops the list of Kiwis’ concerns (59 percent say they are extremely or very concerned), followed closely by Israel’s war against Hamas and Hezbollah (53 percent extremely or very concerned) and North Korea’s testing of ballistic missiles (52 percent extremely or very concerned). This compares to just under half of New Zealanders (46 percent) being extremely or very concerned about tariffs and increased trade protectionism.

With major conflicts ongoing, thinking about what role New Zealand and other mid-sized countries can have in supporting mini-laterals (small, bespoke groupings of states) to be effective peacemakers is crucial. The results show that countries like Japan and Singapore are seen by New Zealanders as comfortable choices for closer cooperation and are viewed as important partners, alongside longstanding historical relationships like Australia and the UK.  

Our Perceptions of Asia survey from earlier this year showed that South Korea is seen to be in the same grouping of like-minded countries, and that public sentiment towards the Philippines has warmed significantly over the past five years, also (up 19 percentage points since 2018).

Dr Joseph Liow in conversation with the director of the Centre for Strategic Studies and Professor of International Relations, David Capie

Last week, the Foundation hosted Dr Joseph Liow, dean, and Wang Gungwu, chair professor in East Asia Affairs, at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore. Liow argued there was a strong case for countries like New Zealand and Singapore to proactively collaborate in smaller groupings on specific issues where we have shared interests and goals, particularly those that are able to fly under the radar of great power politics, or that can provide a platform for major powers to ‘opt in’ once negotiated. This has been a successful model for many of our region’s most important trade agreements, including CPTPP and RCEP, which started out as small states thinking big.  

Of course, China and the US will remain critical and consequential partners to our economy and to the regional order more broadly, and they will remain the pacesetters in key areas like AI. But Liow stressed that trying to “win the approval” of the US and China is largely futile in an environment where their rivalry will continue to drive volatility. The real measure of success, he suggested, is our ability to pursue our own interests with skill and confidence, sometimes working with the major powers, and sometimes navigating around them.

For those interested in the full results of the Asia New Zealand Foundation’s November poll, you can find them here.

This article was first published on the newsroom website.

The Foundation's Asia in Focus initiative publishes expert insights and analysis on issues across Asia, as well as New Zealand’s evolving relationship with the region.