Perceptions of Asia Mini Poll — September 2026
A new poll by the Asia New Zealand Foundation shows that New Zealanders are wary of China and the United States but see the former as important to New Zealand’s future while the latter remains an important defence and security partner.
The US-Israel war with Iran and the rapid development of AI and its potential impact top the list of New Zealanders’ biggest concerns when it comes to recent world developments.
The poll of 1,056 New Zealanders was carried out by Research New Zealand between 25 and 28 September 2026 and provides an updated snapshot of New Zealanders' views since the June 2026 release of the Asia New Zealand Foundation’s Perceptions of Asia survey. Results have been weighted based on the most recent demographic information from Stats NZ.
Friend and threat
New Zealanders are currently more likely to view both China and the United States as threats to New Zealand, rather than friends, according to the latest Asia New Zealand Foundation poll.
This is a shift from the Perceptions of Asia survey released in June 2026, which showed New Zealanders were more likely to see China as a friend than a threat. The results come after China’s July ballistic missile test in the Pacific Ocean.
The other change since the June Perceptions survey (which was based on fieldwork carried out in January and February of this year), is that New Zealanders are once again more likely to view the United States as a friend than China.
Twenty-eight percent of New Zealanders say the United States is a friend to New Zealand compared to 23 percent who same the same of China.
Yet New Zealanders are still more likely to view the United States as a bigger threat to New Zealand, with 39 percent identifying the United States as a threat (14 percent identify it as a major threat) while 36 percent say China represents a threat to New Zealand (10 percent say it is a major threat).
The results indicate New Zealanders are increasingly polarised in terms of their sentiment towards the United States and increasingly neutral or unsure when it comes to China.
Trust in powers to act responsibly
New Zealanders remain largely distrustful of major powers. Over half of New Zealanders (56 percent) express having little trust in the United States (30 percent say they have ‘very low’ trust), while 48 percent say they have little trust in China (18 percent report ‘very low’ trust).
Just 18 and 16 percent of New Zealanders express high trust in the United States and China respectively.
Australia remains New Zealanders’ most trusted power, with 78 percent expressing high or very high trust, followed by the United Kingdom (60 percent high or very high trust) and Japan (59 percent high or very high trust).
Just over one in five (22 percent) of New Zealanders say they have high trust in India to act responsibly on the world stage.
Like-mindedness
Unsurprisingly, Australia is also the country New Zealanders identify as being most likeminded to New Zealand, with 80 percent saying it is likeminded (and 55 percent saying it is ‘very’ likeminded).
The United Kingdom is a distant second, with 63 percent saying it is likeminded (and 28 percent saying it is very likeminded).
Japan, consistently seen as New Zealanders’ closest friend in Asia, is seen as the third most likeminded with 34 percent identifying it as being likeminded or very likeminded.
Just a quarter (25 percent) of those surveyed see the United States as being likeminded, while 18 percent say the same of India and 14 percent of China.
Importance to New Zealand's future
New Zealanders see China as the most important Asian power to New Zealand’s future – and as more important than the United States – although the perceptions of China’s importance still trail those of the Australia and the United Kingdom.
Japan is seen as the fourth most important, with 56 percent of New Zealanders identifying it as important or very important, compared to just under half (49 percent) who say the same of the United States.
India is not far behind, with 43 percent of New Zealanders identifying it as important or very important to New Zealand’s future.
Importance to New Zealand’s security and defence
When it comes to New Zealand’s security and defence, however, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States are still seen as the most important players.
Eighty-one percent of New Zealanders view Australia, New Zealand’s only formal ally, as important or very important to New Zealand’s security and defence.
Despite its geographic distance, the United Kingdom comes in second, with 62 percent of New Zealanders saying it is important or very important to Aotearoa’s security and defence.
Just under half of New Zealanders survey (46 percent) identify the United States as important to New Zealand’s security and defence, placing it ahead of Japan (36 percent), China (27 percent) and India (21 percent).
Concern over recent world events
When it comes to recent world events and developments, New Zealanders are most worried about the US-Israel war with Iran, with 62 percent saying they are very or extremely concerned about the ongoing conflict.
Not far behind is the rapid development of AI, with 57 percent reporting they are very or extremely concerned about AI’s rapid advancement and its impact.
China’s submarine-launched ballistic missile test is the next biggest concern, with half of those surveyed (50 percent) saying they are very or extremely concerned about the July test over the Pacific Ocean.
Just under half (45 percent) of New Zealanders say they are at least very concerned about tariffs on imports to the United States.
Thirty-seven percent report being at least very concerned about military build-up and investment in the Pacific, while just 10 percent express the same about Australia’s recent defence pact with Fiji.
The Foundation's research programme publishes surveys, reports, and insights briefs relating to all aspects of New Zealand’s relationships with and interests in Asia. We also provide grants to emerging scholars with Asia-related research interests.
