New poll finds New Zealanders are increasingly wary of major powers amid global uncertainty
A new survey conducted by the Asia New Zealand Foundation Te Whītau Tūhono in September shows perceptions of China have shifted since the Foundation’s Perceptions of Asia 2026 survey, released in June 2026, when New Zealanders were more likely to see China as a friend than a threat.
In the latest poll, 36 percent of New Zealanders viewed China as a threat, associating it with caution or suspicion, compared with 23 percent who viewed it as a friend, seeing it as safe and trustworthy.
The findings follow China’s July ballistic missile test in the Pacific Ocean, which 50 percent of New Zealanders say they are ‘very 'or 'extremely concerned’ about.
At the same time, New Zealanders continue to recognise China’s importance. Sixty percent say China is important to New Zealand’s future.
The poll also took in views of the United States. In it, 49 percent of New Zealanders say the United States is important to New Zealand’s future, and 46 percent rate it as an important or very important defence and security partner, compared with 27 percent for China.
Asia New Zealand Foundation Chief Executive, Suzannah Jessep, says the findings reveal an increasingly complex picture of how New Zealanders view major powers.
“There is clearly a growing sense among New Zealanders of discomfort with major powers, especially when their actions are perceived as threatening, rule-breaking, or harmful to New Zealand's interests.
“China is viewed with considerable caution, but New Zealanders also recognise its significance to our future. The United States remains important, particularly for security and defence, while also attracting high levels of public distrust.”
More than half of New Zealanders express low trust in the United States to act responsibly in the world, including 30 percent who report very low trust, while just 18 percent express high trust. By comparison, Australia, the United Kingdom and Japan attract substantially higher levels of trust. Seventy-eight percent express high trust in Australia, 60 percent in the UK and 59 percent in Japan.
Asia New Zealand Foundation Director of Research and Engagement, Dr Julia Macdonald, says the findings show New Zealanders are taking a more nuanced view of the countries shaping the international environment.
“What is striking is that concern or distrust does not necessarily mean New Zealanders see a country as unimportant or that we should disengage. People are distinguishing between the different roles these major powers play – from future prosperity to defence and security – and what those relationships mean for New Zealand."
The poll also shows wider global developments are weighing heavily on New Zealanders.
Sixty-two percent are ‘very 'or 'extremely concerned’ about the US-Israel war with Iran, while 57 percent are highly concerned about the rapid development of AI and its potential impact.
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For media queries, contact: Graeme Acton: [email protected]; 027 448 1342.
About the poll
The September 2026 mini poll was carried out by Research New Zealand and completed with a nationally representative sample of New Zealanders aged 18 years and over. A total of 1,056 people were surveyed between 25 and 28 September 2026. The sample is representative of the New Zealand adult population in terms of age, gender, ethnicity and geographic region.
Results have been weighted by age and gender based on the most up-to-date demographic information from Stats NZ. Results based on the total sample are subject to a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
The Foundation's research programme publishes surveys, reports, and insights briefs relating to all aspects of New Zealand’s relationships with and interests in Asia. We also provide grants to emerging scholars with Asia-related research interests.
