How do Australians and New Zealanders view Asia and the world in 2026? 

The dominant headline across both sides of the Tasman following the release of the two annual surveys is the increasingly positive sentiment towards China and falling trust in the United States.  

This year, 43 percent of New Zealanders identified China as a friend or close friend of New Zealand, up from 38 percent in the previous survey. The proportion of New Zealanders who view China as a threat has fallen a corresponding five percentage points to 23 percent.

At the same time, New Zealanders’ trust in China to act responsibly in the world is also increasing, although remains relatively low, with 19 percent saying they have high trust in China, up from 14 percent in the previous poll.

Among Australians, China scores an average of 41 degrees on the Lowy Poll’s ‘feelings thermometer’, up four degrees from the previous year. Trust in China is also up, with 28 percent of Australians expressing at least moderate trust in the People’s Republic to act responsibly in the world, an increase of eight percentage points from the last poll. 

At the same time, both countries are experiencing a souring in perceptions of the United States. One notable difference, however, is that New Zealanders now view China more positively than the United States – a first in the history of the Foundation’s polling – while Australians remain warmer, albeit it marginally, towards the United States. 

Thirty-nine percent of New Zealanders view the United States as a friend or close friend to New Zealand, a 22-percentage point drop from the Foundation’s previous annual survey. At the same time, the proportion of New Zealanders viewing the United States as a threat has increased from 17 percent at the end of 2024 to 35 percent this year – now seen as the third most threatening country to New Zealand behind North Korea and Russia. 

By contrast, the United States remains ahead of China on the Lowy Poll’s feeling thermometer, with an average of 46 degrees, down from 50 in last year’s poll.  

Both countries have seen trust in the United States plummet. Just one in five (20 percent) of New Zealanders express high trust in the United States to act responsibly in the world, down 13 percentage points from the previous survey. Meanwhile just 31 percent of Australians say they trust the United States at least ‘somewhat’ to act responsibly, a five-percentage point drop from the previous poll (and a 25-point drop from 2024). 

It is against this backdrop, and for the first time in the history of the Lowy Poll, that Australians are more likely to say their country’s relationship with China is more important than Australia’s relationship with the United States (with 51 percent selecting China compared to 45 percent the United States). Despite this, support for Australia’s alliance with the United States remains fairly strong – although it is the lowest it has been since 2019 – with 42 percent saying the US alliance is very important for Australia’s security.  

With rising sentiment towards China and falling levels of trust in the United States, it is not surprising that 64 percent of Australians say the United States should prioritise stabilising its relationship with China, while just 16 percent say the United States should place greater emphasis on challenging China’s role in the world.  

Australians and New Zealanders love Japan and each other 

Japan continues to be seen as both Australia’s and New Zealand’s closest friend in Asia

As with previous years, Australians and New Zealanders are both most likely to identify one another as their country’s closest friend. Ninety-three percent of New Zealanders say Australia is a friend or close friend, while New Zealand scores 86 degrees on the Lowy Poll’s feeling’s thermometer.  

Also in keeping with surveys past, Japan continues to be seen as both Australia’s and New Zealand’s closest friend in Asia.  

For the first time this year, Japan has narrowly scraped past the United Kingdom, becoming the power New Zealanders most trust to act responsibly. Seventy percent of New Zealanders express high trust in Japan, up eight percentage points from the previous survey. The United Kingdom remains in second place at 69 percent. 

Japan remains Australians’ most trusted power (89 percent express at least moderate trust in it), well ahead of Germany and the UK in second and third place. Japan has held the record as Australians’ most trusted power for six years in a row. 

Influence in the Pacific 

Report: "[On Pacific donors] Neither New Zealanders’ nor Australians’ perceptions align with what the actual figures say."

Despite the overlapping views of much of the world, it is closest to home that perceptions of Australia and New Zealand’s place in the world most diverge.  

Both polls examined which countries are seen as having the most influence among Pacific Island countries. 

Australians see China as wielding the most influence (not further defined) among Pacific Island countries, with 39 percent selecting it. This was followed by Australia (33 percent) and the United States (18 percent), while New Zealand is a distant last at just seven percent. 

By contrast, New Zealanders see New Zealand and China as first equal when it comes to political influence in the Pacific Islands (26 percent), followed by China (20 percent) and the United States (14 percent).  

When it comes to the most important development partners, New Zealanders see New Zealand (32 percent) as most important, followed by Australia (28 percent), China (19 percent) and the United States (five percent). 

Neither New Zealanders’ nor Australians’ perceptions align with what the actual figures say. According to the Lowy Institute’s Pacific Aid Map, Australia is by far Pacific Island countries’ largest aid donor, contributing 38 percent of total aid in the 15 years between 2008 and 2023 compared to China’s nine percent. According to the same dataset, Australia committed AU$23.1 billion in between 2008 and 2023, China $6.2 billion, New Zealand $5.1 billion, the United States $4.9 billion and Japan $4.6 billion. 

What are New Zealanders and Australians most worried about? 

When it comes to perceived threats to vital interests, Australians see cyberattacks as the biggest threat to their country’s vital interest, with 62 percent saying it is a critical threat. Cyberattacks are also near the top of the list of New Zealanders’ concerns, with 45 percent expressing high concern. 

Australians’ next biggest concern is a downturn in the global economy: 60 percent see it as a critical threat. A global economic downturn ranks just sixth of 16 potential threats, with 39 percent of New Zealanders saying they are highly concerned about it. 

New Zealanders on the other hand see climate change as the next most significant threat (46 percent high concern), placing it second after fake news and misinformation (51 percent high concern). Australians, meanwhile, place climate change as the tenth of 13 potential critical threats, although 49 percent still identify it as a critical threat. 

The rise of authoritarian systems of government is the other potential threat both sides of the Tasman rank relatively highly, with Australians placing it fourth and New Zealanders placing it third.

When it comes to military conflict between major powers in the region, however, Australians are significantly more likely to express concern, ranking the possibility of conflict between China and the United States over Taiwan in fifth place (with 57 percent identifying it as a critical threat). New Zealanders meanwhile place the possibility of military conflict between major powers in Asia towards the end of the list, with just 29 percent saying it is an area of high concern. 

Despite much overlap in how the two countries view Asia and their respective places in it, differences in geography, politics and history continue to shape public perceptions. 

About the surveys 

The Asia New Zealand Foundation’s Perceptions of Asia survey was carried out between 21 January and 18 February 2026, before the United States began conducting strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026. It included a sample of 2,300 New Zealanders. 

The Lowy Institute’s Lowy Poll was carried out between 2 and 14 March 2026, after the US strikes on Iran commenced, and included a sample of 2,013 Australian residents.  

The Foundation's Asia in Focus initiative publishes expert insights and analysis on issues across Asia, as well as New Zealand’s evolving relationship with the region.