Symposium examines Asia in transition and the role of middle powers

Speaker: Professor Cheng-Chwee Kuik, National University of Malaysia

Professor Cheng-Chwee Kuik's keynote focused on three questions: who middle powers are, how the “middle power moment” is unfolding, and why it matters.

He defined the current era not as one of unified middle power cooperation, but as a fluid and fragmented landscape of overlapping partnerships and coalitions. Rather than a single bloc of middle powers, he said the world is seeing multiple, issue-based and multi-layered collaborations across bilateral, minilateral, regional, and cross-regional levels.

Professor Kuik argued that middle powers are defined less by size and more by agency, expressed through three dimensions: initiative (setting agendas rather than following great powers), institutionalisation (turning ideas into durable cooperative frameworks), and impact (shaping meaningful outcomes).

He also introduced a key distinction between “alliance-centric” and “alliance-allergic” states, noting: “We need to understand two types of middle powers today: alliance-centric and alliance-allergic—those who rely on alliances for security, and those who prefer cooperation without formal military alignment.”

Speakers:

• Professor Bec Strating, La Trobe University 

• Kathline Tolosa, The Asia Foundation

• Dr Sinderpal Singh, R. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) 

• Professor David Capie, Victoria University of Wellington (Moderator)

Panel 1 brought together academic and policy perspectives to explore how Indo-Pacific middle powers are addressing maritime security challenges and risks.   

It examined how contested claims and more frequent close-quarters encounters in the South China Sea are heightening the risk of miscalculation and unintended escalation between Southeast Asian countries and China. 

Panelists discussed how geopolitical competition is creating new risks for security of critical undersea cables and regional port infrastructure and how illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing and associated maritime crime strain coastal livelihoods and governance capacity.

Speakers noted that countries are moving away from binary strategic choices and building a latticework of flexible, targeted partnerships to address a range of maritime issues.

Speakers:

• Dr Deborah Elms, Hinrich Foundation 

• Professor Pavida Pananond, Thammasat Business School

• Quyen Nguyen, CEL

• Professor Natasha Hamilton-Hart, University of Auckland (Moderator)

Panel 2 examined how supply chains have become central to economic resilience amid growing geopolitical and economic disruption.

Speakers argued that while supply chains have faced major shocks — from Covid-19, conflict, tariffs and trade fragmentation — they have largely proven resilient, "bending rather than breaking". However, it was noted that the era of seamless, low-cost global integration is ending, replaced by more fragmented, expensive and complex systems.

Panellists stressed that resilience now requires diversification, flexibility and stronger coordination between governments, firms and industries.

For New Zealand, speakers argued the country is relatively well positioned due to its trade relationships and agreements, but faces challenges linked to geographic isolation and dependence on trade. They highlighted opportunities to deepen partnerships in areas such as agritech, traceability, renewable technologies and services, while encouraging greater use of existing agreements such as the CPTPP to strengthen resilience and market access.

Speakers:

• Thomas Parks, The Asia Foundation

• Heather Campbell, Save the Children NZ

• Anna Fifield, Independent journalist (moderator)

The panel discussed how international aid is increasingly shaped by geopolitics, with overseas development assistance (ODA) more closely linked to trade, security and diplomatic interests across Asia and the Pacific.

Speakers noted that aid is becoming more pragmatic and interest-driven, with countries using it to strengthen partnerships and advance strategic goals.

Heather Campbell, from Save the Children NZ, highlighted the real-world impacts of declining aid funding, particularly in fragile contexts, where organisations are forced to prioritise limited resources amid growing need. She also pointed to shifts toward more integrated, locally driven development models and greater involvement of private sector and community actors.

The discussion also covered China’s evolving role in development assistance, and the broader trend of localisation, where decision-making and delivery are increasingly shifting to local actors.

For New Zealand, the panel emphasised that influence comes less from scale and more from agility, trust, and partnership-based engagement in a more competitive and fragmented aid landscape.

Speaker:

• Dr Akiko Fukushima, Tokyo Foundation

Dr Fukushima's keynote focused on Japan's response to changing regional and global order.

She argued that Japan — and other middle powers — are operating in a global environment defined by both rapid change and persistent continuity. She noted that the key shift is the breakdown of boundaries between politics, economics, and security, with economic tools increasingly being used as instruments of geopolitical coercion.

Dr Fukushima spoke about how this shifting order is also marked by uncertainty about US global leadership and alliance reliability, alongside emerging alignments among China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, noting: “Having witnessed the deepening divide in the transatlantic alliance, the Indo-Pacific now wonders how much the US will remain committed to regional security.”

She concluded by arguing that Japan is having to balance its dependency on its US alliance with greater self-reliance and wider strategic partnerships. At the same time, it seeks to manage complex relations with China through a combination of deterrence, dialogue, and engagement, aiming for a more stable and constructive relationship despite current tensions.

Speakers:

• Anthea Mulakala, The Asia Foundation

• Sir Peter Gluckman, Koi Tū Centre for Informed Futures

• Ryan Black, Microsoft ANZ

• Suzannah Jessep, Asia New Zealand Foundation (moderator)

The conversation explored how the digital economy and especially AI is reshaping work, education, and economic systems, and whether societies are adapting quickly enough.

Panelists stressed growing inequality risks — between countries, firms, and workers. Advanced economies and large companies are better placed to adapt, while smaller businesses, developing economies, and informal workers risk falling behind.

Education was a major concern. The panel highlighted a mismatch between traditional, linear education systems and rapidly changing skill needs, with growing support for micro-credentials, workplace training, and lifelong learning, alongside stronger emphasis on adaptability and soft skills.

They also discussed broader issues including demographic decline, the rising influence of tech companies, challenges to trust and governance in the digital age, and uncertainty over whether current economic measures properly capture AI’s impact.

Speakers

• Todd Wassel, The Asia Foundation

• Kathline Tolosa, The Asia Foundation

• Peter Kell, Obayashi Corporation and Senior Fellow Asia New Zealand Foundation

• Simon Watt, Commercial Barrister and Honorary Adviser Asia New Zealand Foundation (moderator)

Panel 4 explored how energy security has become a central geopolitical and economic issue in an era of global disruption, where climate pressures, conflict risks, and rising electricity demand are reshaping regional energy systems.

A key theme was the uneven pace of the energy transition. Southeast Asia faces a significant investment gap in renewables, raising the risk of divergence between countries that successfully modernise their energy systems and those left with higher costs and stranded fossil-fuel assets.

New Zealand was contrasted as having a highly renewable electricity system but continued reliance on imported liquid fuels, underscoring its vulnerability in a more volatile global environment and the need for a clearer, long-term national energy strategy.

Across the discussion, speakers emphasised the tension between competition and cooperation among middle powers: while countries compete for resources and investment, there is also growing scope for trust-based regional interconnection and collaboration. Strong governance, legal frameworks, and investment certainty were seen as essential to enabling energy projects and attracting capital.

The evening wrapped up with a keynote delivered by the New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs, Rt Hon Winston Peters.

Mr Peters outlined New Zealand’s “foreign policy reset” in response to a more fragmented global order. He argued that the world has shifted sharply from rules-based cooperation toward power-based competition, where economics and security are increasingly intertwined, trade protectionism is rising, and multilateral institutions are under strain.

He framed the current period as “order-shattering,” requiring small and middle powers to adapt or risk losing agency.

Mr Peters argued that a central pillar of the response is a major “lift” in New Zealand’s engagement with Asia. He emphasised that Asia is essential to New Zealand’s prosperity and security, and that the country is now more deeply embedded in regional dynamics than ever before.