Symposium examines Asia in transition and the role of middle powers

Speaker: Professor Cheng-Chwee Kuik, National University of Malaysia

Professor Cheng-Chwee Kuik's keynote focussed on three questions: who middle powers are, how the “middle power moment” is unfolding, and why it matters.

He defined the current era not as one of unified middle power cooperation, but as a fluid and fragmented landscape of overlapping partnerships and coalitions. Rather than a single bloc of middle powers, the world is seeing multiple, issue-based and multi-layered collaborations across bilateral, minilateral, regional, and cross-regional levels.

He argued that middle powers are defined less by size and more by agency, expressed through three dimensions: initiative (setting agendas rather than following great powers), institutionalisation (turning ideas into durable cooperative frameworks), and impact (shaping meaningful outcomes).

He also introduced a key distinction between “alliance-centric” and “alliance-allergic” states, noting: “We need to understand two types of middle powers today: alliance-centric and alliance-allergic—those who rely on alliances for security, and those who prefer cooperation without formal military alignment.”

Speakers:

• Professor Bec Strating, La Trobe University 

• Kathline Tolosa, The Asia Foundation

• Dr Sinderpal Singh, R. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) 

• Professor David Capie, Victoria University of Wellington (Moderator)

The panel brought together academic and policy perspectives to explore how Indo-Pacific middle powers are addressing maritime security challenges and risks.   

It examined how contested claims and more frequent close-quarters encounters in the South China Sea are heightening the risk of miscalculation and unintended escalation between Southeast Asian countries and China. 

Panelists discussed how geopolitical competition is creating new risks for security of critical undersea cables and regional port infrastructure and how illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing and associated maritime crime strain coastal livelihoods and governance capacity.

Speakers noted that countries are moving away from binary strategic choices and building a latticework of flexible, targeted partnerships to address a range of maritime issues.

Speakers:

• Dr Deborah Elms, Hinrich Foundation 

• Professor Pavida Pananond, Thammasat Business School

• Quyen Nguyen, CEL

• Professor Natasha Hamilton-Hart, University of Auckland (Moderator)

Panelists spoke about how rising protectionism is reshaping global trade and prompting governments and firms in Asia to rethink supply chain security.

It was noted that for the past 30 years, Asian manufacturing has prioritised supply chain efficiency and cost minimisation across production networks spanning multiple countries. As the risks of complex integration grow, firms are shifting toward greater redundancy and resilience.

Panellists examined how key actors are adapting supply chains and the implications for regional trade, development, and security.

Speakers:

• Thomas Parks, The Asia Foundation

• Heather Campbell, Save the Children NZ

• Anna Fifield, Independent journalist (moderator)

The panel looked at the vital role Official Development Assistance (ODA) plays in the development and wellbeing of many communities across Asia.

It was noted that while ODA has always reflected the national interests of donor countries to some extent, recent changes among traditional OECD member donors have dramatically changed the scope of development cooperation.

Discussions looked at how major donor governments are now mandating that ODA should contribute directly to trade diversification, national security, and other core national interests, and how geopolitical and geoeconomic considerations are influencing funding priorities, target sectors, geographic priorities, delivery channels, and intended outcomes.

Speaker:

• Dr Akiko Fukushima, Tokyo Foundation

Dr Fukushima's keynote focussed on Japan's response to changing regional and global order.

She argued that Japan — and other middle powers — are operating in a global environment defined by both rapid change and persistent continuity. The key shift is the breakdown of boundaries between politics, economics, and security, with economic tools increasingly being used as instruments of geopolitical coercion.

Dr Fukushima spoke about how this shifting order is also marked by uncertainty about US global leadership and alliance reliability, alongside emerging alignments among China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, noting: “Having witnessed the deepening divide in the transatlantic alliance, the Indo-Pacific now wonders how much the US will remain committed to the regional security.”

In response, she says Japan is pursuing a “three A’s” strategy:

• Alliance with the United States remains the cornerstone of its security policy, strongly supported by public opinion.

• Autonomy is being strengthened through increased defence spending, capability development, economic security policies, and expanded defence industrial cooperation with partners such as the UK, Australia, and others.

• Alignment involves broader cooperation with like-minded countries through frameworks such as the Free and Open Indo-Pacific vision, CPTPP, and multi-layered regional partnerships.

She concluded by arguing that Japan is therefore balancing deep reliance on its US alliance with greater self-reliance and wider strategic partnerships. At the same time, it seeks to manage complex relations with China through a combination of deterrence, dialogue, and engagement, aiming for a more stable and constructive relationship despite current tensions.

Speakers:

• Anthea Mulakala, The Asia Foundation

• Sir Peter Gluckman, Koi Tū Centre for Informed Futures

• Ryan Black, Microsoft ANZ

• Suzannah Jessep, Asia New Zealand Foundation (moderator)

The panel looked at how Asia’s digital economy is expanding rapidly, reshaping how people work, the skills employers demand, and where new jobs are being created.

The panel looked at how artificial intelligence, automation, and digital platforms are transforming industries across the region — from manufacturing and services to finance and the gig economy. At the same time, education and workforce training systems are struggling to keep pace with the speed of technological change. 

Discussions explored what these shifts mean for workers, businesses, and policymakers across Asia. It examined how countries can prepare their workforces for emerging industries and rapidly evolving skills demands, and the roles that governments, technology companies, and education institutions can play in building more adaptable workforce systems.

The discussion also considered whether the digital economy can drive inclusive growth or risks deepening existing skills gaps and labour market inequalities. 

Speakers

• Todd Wassel, The Asia Foundation

• Kathline Tolosa, The Asia Foundation

• Peter Kell, Obayashi Corporation and Senior Fellow Asia New Zealand Foundation

• Simon Watt, Commercial Barrister and Honorary Adviser Asia New Zealand Foundation (moderator)

The panel examined how Indo-Pacific countries are increasingly concerned about their long-term energy security, given recent disruptions to oil and gas, growing energy demand, and commitments to meet their carbon reduction targets.

Discussions included the key challenges facing countries in the region, how they are managing energy transitions, and what future decarbonisation efforts may look like. Speakers considered how regional powers are balancing the “energy trilemma”— energy security, equity, and environmental sustainability — while maintaining industrial competitiveness, as well as the geopolitical implications of shifting from fossil fuel dependencies to critical mineral-intensive renewable energy systems.

The evening wrapped up with a keynote delivered by the New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs, Rt Hon Winston Peters.

Mr Peters outlined New Zealand’s “foreign policy reset” in response to a more fragmented global order. He argued that the world has shifted sharply from rules-based cooperation toward power-based competition, where economics and security are increasingly intertwined, trade protectionism is rising, and multilateral institutions are under strain.

In his speech, he framed the current period as “order-shattering,” requiring small and middle powers to adapt or risk losing agency.

Mr Peters argued that a central pillar of the response is a major “lift” in New Zealand’s engagement with Asia and emphasised that Asia is essential to New Zealand’s prosperity and security, and that the country is now more deeply embedded in regional dynamics than ever before.

The keynote also highlighted New Zealand’s support for reform of the UN, particularly the Security Council, as part of broader efforts to restore the rules-based international order. He suggested that while new regional and like-minded coalitions are emerging, they are not sufficient on their own without reform of global institutions.