ASEAN’s doors are open for business

Josh Tan: "The ASEAN bloc is not a monolith and it does not stand still."

Last month, I had the privilege of attending the dialogue in Kuala Lumpur, thanks to the Asia New Zealand Foundation. On the surface, a regional policy forum like this may seem far removed from the day-to-day concerns of exporters and investors. Yet in today’s world, where geopolitics directly shape trade flows, market access, and supply chains, these conversations matter more than ever for businesses.

ASEAN centrality first and foremost

The ASEAN bloc is not a monolith and it does not stand still. Today, the region’s choices are shaped by the breakdown of traditional multilateralism and the rise of regional blocs. That’s why ASEAN’s concept of centrality is so important—it ensures members engage widely but pragmatically, hedging between partners to strengthen resilience and diversify risk.

The leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations at the ASEAN Summit in Vientiane, Laos, on 9 October 2024

For New Zealand exporters, this matters on multiple levels. The fragmentation of global trade rules means markets may be governed by overlapping blocs - BRICS+, CPTPP, RCEP, QUAD. ASEAN countries are pragmatic: joining new initiatives is not a rejection of old partners, but a strategy to secure options. That pragmatism should resonate with our businesses, who also need to diversify markets and hedge against shocks.

Just as ASEAN seeks resilience by avoiding overdependence, our exporters must hedge against commodity volatility, shifting consumer demand, and sudden geopolitical flare-ups. And having spent time in the market and engaging with key stakeholders, Southeast Asia needs to be on more exporters’ radar.

This year marks 50 years of ASEAN–NZ relations. Despite frameworks like AANZFTA and RCEP, New Zealand’s trade and investment footprint remains modest, and our visibility in the region is limited.

For businesses, this creates a two-fold challenge. ASEAN is crowded with partners - from the US and EU to China, India, and the Gulf states - New Zealand competes with all of these countries and blocs for influence, investment, and market space.

New Zealand risks being sidelined unless we actively scale up people-to-people exchanges, cultural diplomacy, and industry engagement. At the same time, too few New Zealanders recognise the opportunities ASEAN presents, whether that be a destination for food and fibre products or for services, technology, and education.

That disconnect means exporters may be underestimating both the potential and the risks of doing business in the region.

Cultural diplomacy and soft power resonate

Conversations at the dialogue also highlighted the role of culture and indigenous identity in diplomacy.

For ASEAN, soft power often comes through food, film, and heritage. For New Zealand, bicultural foundations and Māori perspectives on guardianship of the Pacific provide a powerful way to connect with ASEAN societies. We have other soft power tools – even in remote parts of Southeast Asia, you can find people who are familiar with either the All Blacks, Lord of the Rings, former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, or New Zealand’s natural beauty.

This isn’t just feel-good diplomacy. Cultural engagement shapes reputation—and reputation shapes consumer trust, talent attraction, and even investor confidence. Businesses operating in Southeast Asia benefit when New Zealand is seen as a partner that values mutual respect and cultural connection. In the competition for visibility in ASEAN, soft power is an economic asset.

New Zealand’s soft power and identifying features can often get New Zealand businesses through the door, but then it is up to the entrepreneur or the exporter to tell their story, about the quality, reliability, innovation, and values the company holds. Cultural diplomacy opens the first conversation, but commercial credibility and delivery are what sustain it.

Track Two: Where business meets geopolitics

The Foundation-led NextGen roundtable at the ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Dialogue

One of the most important lessons from the dialogue is the value of Track Two diplomacy—the informal space where academics and policymakers interact outside formal negotiations or discussion – a space where more industry leaders and senior business representatives need to be represented.

Why does this matter for business? Because in today’s world, exporters cannot rely solely on trade agreements and tariff schedules. They must understand and anticipate political, environmental, social, technological, economic, and legal risks—the full PESTEL picture. Track Two forums provide a safe environment to test ideas, build networks, and interpret the political signals that eventually shape market conditions.

Government sets the frameworks, but businesses live the realities. Without the presence of industry leaders, Track Two conversations risk drifting from commercial reality. Private sector leadership can bring first-hand experience of supply chain disruptions, shifting demand, and regulatory hurdles - insights that ground policy in practice and provide early visibility of emerging risks. For New Zealand to remain visible and relevant in ASEAN, our exporters and industry leaders must be at the table not just as beneficiaries of policy but as contributors to dialogue, reinforcing our national voice with the credibility and foresight of the business community.

Business has a stake in diplomacy

The world is moving quickly, and the old certainties of the global order are eroding. ASEAN is central to how Asia will navigate this shift, balancing pragmatism with an increasingly crowded strategic environment.

For New Zealand businesses, this isn’t abstract. It shapes the tariffs you pay, the reliability of shipping lanes, the rules that govern digital trade, and the reputation you carry in ASEAN markets.

Returning to the whakataukī that kicked off the dialogue - with your food basket and my food basket, our people will thrive – it wasn’t a New Zealand delegate that used the phrase, it was the ISIS Malaysia Chair Datuk Prof Dr Mohd Faiz Abdullah, and it was used as a call to action for the ASEAN Region, Australia, and New Zealand to collaborate and grow together. For New Zealand, thriving in ASEAN means contributing more than goods. It means offering ideas, culture, partnerships, and yes, business expertise.

The message is clear: Geopolitics is no longer background noise—it is the environment in which trade happens. The sooner we can help exporters embrace this reality, the better prepared they will be to seize opportunities and manage risks in Southeast Asia.

About the author

Josh Tan is the executive director of Export New Zealand, the industry association representing New Zealand’s diverse range of exporters, and a division of Business New Zealand. Josh has been a member of the Asia New Zealand Foundation Leadership Network since 2020 and is a member of the Network’s Advisory Board.

The Foundation's Track II programme supports informal diplomacy with thinktanks in Asia on issues and challenges facing the region.