Projecting Our Voice
New Zealand's prosperity is increasingly derived from Asia, but a new report highlights that insecurity in the region could jeopardise New Zealand's interests.
'Projecting our Voice' is based on a study prepared on behalf of the members of the National Forum of the New Zealand branch of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific (CSCAP:NZ)1. Its purpose is to stimulate a national discussion about the role of security issues in New Zealand’s international relations with Asia at a time of significant change in the region.
The Asia New Zealand Foundation is posting the report's executive summary in cooperation with CSCAP:NZ to help promote further discussion on the issues and ideas raised. Readers’ comments representative or significant commentary will be published online.
Executive summary
1 Security matters to New Zealand. Managing the security of this country’s sovereign territory, its people and its interests abroad has required significant expenditure of effort, time and resources in the past. It will continue to do so in future.
2 Asian countries 2 will shape the world of the 21st century in a way they have not during New Zealand’s recent history. Global influence is tilting more towards Asia and this change is gathering pace. Asia has led the world in economic growth for two decades. It contains half the world’s population, including its two most populous countries. Leading Asian countries are increasingly confident in asserting their interests and are also seeking influence and responsibility on the global stage. As they become more influential and confident, their interests will increasingly intersect and collide. This mix of cooperation and competition is already in evidence across security and economic relationships within the region. Efforts to integrate the region more closely economically are accompanied by a contrary impetus for countries to compete for influence, prestige and resources.
3 The re-balancing of power relations in Asia is driven in particular by the rapid rise of Chinese economic and military power and political influence. This has engendered a persistent wariness around the region about China’s intentions as countries analyse the implications of these changes for them. The conduct of China and the United States individually, and the relationship between them, will be major determinants of the context for international politics and security in the region. Other countries, in particular India, Japan and prominent Southeast Asian countries, will also have a significant influence over that context. will shape the world of the 21st century in a way they have not during New Zealand’s recent history. Global influence is tilting more towards Asia and this change is gathering pace. Asia has led the world in economic growth for two decades. It contains half the world’s population, including its two most populous countries. Leading Asian countries are increasingly confident in asserting their interests and are also seeking influence and responsibility on the global stage. As they become more influential and confident, their interests will increasingly intersect and collide. This mix of cooperation and competition is already in evidence across security and economic relationships within the region. Efforts to integrate the region more closely economically are accompanied by a contrary impetus for countries to compete for influence, prestige and resources.
4 In addition to major power alignments and relationships, numerous tensions remain unresolved and several hotspots – some involving major powers - have the potential to deteriorate into conflict. Disputed maritime boundaries in the seas around China, the status of Taiwan, the situation on the Korean Peninsula and the unresolved land border between India and China, are among issues that have the potential to lead to security crises.
5 Countries will seek to position themselves with a degree of flexibility to allow them to preserve their key interests in a range of different scenarios. Despite its position at the edge of the region, New Zealand will face some of the same dilemmas in managing its relationships with leading powers in Asia and its response to events within Asia that have an impact on New Zealand’s interests.
6 Through the regional organisations – the most prominent of which are ASEAN, APEC, the ASEAN Regional Forum, the East Asia Summit and the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus - the region is developing mechanisms to minimise tension. They have entrenched habits of dialogue, but have not yet demonstrated an ability to resolve ongoing or intensifying disputes. Most countries in the region manage their critical security issues on a bilateral basis and can be expected to continue to do so. Expectations of what these organisations can achieve should be tailored to these circumstances. Regional organisations provide an umbrella of common intention and allow smaller countries, including New Zealand, a role in addressing common concerns. New Zealand should remain engaged with them.
7 New Zealand’s connections with Asia have been growing and will continue to strengthen. These links with Asia offer opportunities to New Zealand that have not existed before. Increasingly prosperous Asian populations offer expanding markets for New Zealand goods and services. Six of New Zealand’s principal export markets are in Asia and New Zealand is engaged in closer economic integration in Asia, including through its range of free trade agreements. Connections between people are growing as a result of New Zealand’s diverse population base, and also through business, tourism and education. If current trends prevail, one in six New Zealanders will have a family connection with Asia by 2026.
8 However, as New Zealand’s economic interests with Asia grow, so also does New Zealand’s exposure to the risk from potential crises there. Security crises, natural disasters or cross border problems within the region could impose significant costs on New Zealand’s business with Asia, and to trade and travel to, from and through it. There would be implications for New Zealand in managing the fallout that crisis, conflict or poor governance could create. The economic impacts on New Zealand of a crisis in Asia could include disruption to export and import arrangements; difficulty in supply chain management; increasing fuel, insurance and storage costs in event of disruption to sea lanes; disruption to travel and tourism and difficulties in gaining the attention of foreign governments.
9 Other implications for New Zealand could include an increase in international crime such as people smuggling, illicit trade in weapons and drugs, and opportunistic piracy and terrorism. In turn, these could have a contagious effect within the Pacific. New Zealand has defence commitments in Southeast Asia in addition to its close alliance relationship with Australia. Dealing with the effects on New Zealand of security crises in Asia would require Government time, energy and money, including potentially through the commitment of New Zealand military personnel.
10 New Zealand is unusual in being able to focus so heavily on its prosperity interests. Many other countries have a more even focus on prosperity and security, and live with the constant prospect of disputes intensifying. If New Zealand is to be an effective part of a region in which security issues are prominent, it will need to maintain an understanding of those issues and be able to engage with countries important to it about issues that are important to them. New Zealand’s focus on economic relations risks obscuring the political and security opportunities and risks from within Asia towards New Zealand. Redressing this will require a more even balance of attention to political and security issues alongside the focus on economic issues.
1 CSCAP:NZ is a National Forum of academics and other experts on security issues from throughout New Zealand. It is hosted by the Centre for Strategic Studies at Victoria University.
2 Definitions of Asia vary widely. In order to contain the scope of this paper, Asia will be defined as the countries of ASEAN, north Asia and the main countries of south Asia.
Give your feedback
The report's authors are keen to get feedback, and will publish significant reactions as part of an ongoing debate. Email your comments to jocelyn.woodley@vuw.ac.nz