Workshop explores issues around nuclear expansion in Southeast Asia
Senior Lecturer Dr Tanya Ogilvie-White from the University of Canterbury was this year’s recipient of the Asia:NZ Conference Support grant. The grant help fund a recent workshop held in August: “Preparing for nuclear expansion in Southeast Asia: Frameworks for effective cooperation and enhanced security”. This is her report.
The first “Workshop on Preparing for Nuclear Expansion in Southeast Asia” was held at the Heritage Hotel in Christchurch on 26-28 August 2009. The meeting, which was co-hosted by the University of Canterbury, Christchurch and the Center for Contemporary Conflict, Monterey, California, brought together scholars and practitioners from across the Asia-Pacific to explore the regional challenges associated with the launch of nuclear energy programmes in Southeast Asia.
One of the goals was to assess the security and safety risks involved in the development of nuclear power, from the point of view of the countries that are planning to build nuclear power plants on their own territory over the next decade (Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam), and those that might utilise nuclear energy in future (Malaysia, Philippines, and Singapore), and for the region as a whole.
Another goal was to explore frameworks for effective safety and security cooperation so that the risks associated with the development of nuclear energy can be minimised. These frameworks include national legislation, regional institutional structures, and numerous components of the global nuclear nonproliferation regime, all of which help promote effective nuclear governance.
Highlights from the meeting included the lively participation of scholars from Indonesia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam – all of whom engaged in frank discussions of the potential problems that could arise from the development of nuclear energy in countries with poor public safety records, weak governance and, in some cases, a history of dangerous seismic activity. Awareness of these problems has resulted in public opposition to some of the plans, and could well scupper –or at least delay - ambitious nuclear power programmes in Indonesia and Thailand.
On the other hand, public concerns over future energy security and environmental impact of carbon emissions appears to be growing, and may well counter-balance concerns over nuclear safety. This debate is likely to intensify as the sites for the new power plants are announced, and visible evidence of nuclear power development starts to emerge.
Other highlights included discussion of the proliferation risks associated with the development of nuclear energy, given the potential for diversion to military applications, and the difficulties associated with verifying that nuclear activities are entirely peaceful in nature.
Reassuringly, as was discussed at length during the meeting, a Nuclear-Weapons Free Zone, banning the development of nuclear weapons, already exists in Southeast Asia, and experts mostly agree that the nuclear intentions in the region are indeed peaceful. Moreover, none of the states embarking on nuclear energy programmes are currently planning to develop indigenous enrichment and reprocessing capabilities (the sensitive parts of the nuclear fuel cycle that can be used to develop a nuclear weapons capability), and although they are currently resistant to completely closing off this option in the future, attitudes may change.
As was discussed during the workshop, concerns over the potential for nuclear smuggling, and for illicit military nuclear development may eventually persuade policymakers in the region to develop a tighter regional non-proliferation framework that leads to greater transparency in nuclear activities. Unconfirmed suspicions over nuclear developments in Myanmar, and reports of the nuclear and missile-related cooperation between the military junta and North Korea, may speed up this process.
The workshop received sponsorship from the Asia:NZ, which generously hosted a reception and dinner for 30 participants at the Sign of the Takahe Restaurant in Christchurch, on 27 August. The Foundation’s sponsorship and support for the workshop was very gratefully received – the co-conveners would especially like to extend their thanks to Dr Andrew Butcher, who participated in the workshop and expertly chaired the final panel, which addressed the issue of how to promote safe, secure regional nuclear governance.
Due to the success of the event, the main sponsor of the workshop, the US Defense Threat Reduction Agency, has already indicated that it wishes to sponsor a follow-on workshop in Christchurch in June 2010, which will co-hosted again by the University of Canterbury and the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School’s Center for Contemporary Conflict.
Photos
Participants at the recent workshop included:
1. Dr Maria Rublee with Raymund Quilop.
2. Raymund Quilop and Dr Pavin Chachavalpongpun.
Article uploaded August 2009.