Commentary on inaugural India-New Zealand Track II Dialogue
Brian Lynch, director of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, reports from the Track II Dialogue with the prestigious Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, held in Delhi on 7 and 8 December 2009.
The meeting was hosted by a prominent Indian ‘think tank’, the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). It was well organised and ran smoothly. For an inaugural occasion the atmosphere was notably relaxed and positive, with free-flowing, frequently lively discussion. There was a strong focus on regional security and security-related issues, but the agenda was widened to include development assistance questions, the global financial crisis, and the state of the bilateral relationship. Few areas of serious difference of view were identified. The forum was a salutary reminder to New Zealand participants that there is no substitute for meeting people at their place, in order to obtain and understand their perspective on issues.
The New Zealand delegation led by Dr Richard Grant (Asia New Zealand Foundation) included Dr Jane Buckingham (University of Canterbury), Dr David Capie (Victoria University of Wellington), Prof Xiaoming Huang (China Centre VUW), Dr Mark Rolls (Waikato University), Brian Lynch (Director NZIIA) and Pia McKay (Asia NZ Young Fellow). New Zealand High Commissioner in New Delhi Rupert Holborow, Deputy High Commissioner John Subritzky and Education Counsellor Melanie Chapman also took part.
No modern day Track II agenda with Asia-Pacific participants is complete without consideration of evolving structural arrangements in the region; its ‘architecture’. The dialogue confirmed that as the twin ‘bookends’ of Asia, India and New Zealand share a common interest in being accepted as legitimate players in discussion of institutional ways in which the region wants to organise itself. This is especially important in light of the emergence of the G20 Group as the forum for driving global economic reform, and new ‘architectural’ proposals that range from a small and exclusive ‘concert’ of big Asian powers to ambitious concepts of an over-arching Asia Pacific Community.
There were no significant shades of perception over the factors that had led to the global financial meltdown. The two economies had not suffered to the extent of many others and were showing early signs of recovery. However, these signs were far from sufficiently robust to yet suggest either government would be confident enough in the near future to dismantle fiscal stimulation packages.
Development and security in the Pacific was the context for New Zealand participants to highlight the exposure and vulnerability of Island states. Attention was drawn to the growth of Asian influence in the region especially that of China, with the assurance that a higher profile on India’s part would be welcome. The IDSA presentation on security in South Asia reinforced the value of the Track Two formula in fostering frank exchanges. With all its near neighbours other than Pakistan, India’s relations have steadily improved. The rise of ‘religious radicalism’ is of deep concern. No less so is China’s military enhancement programme, what is seen as its increasing ‘assertiveness’ and the lack of progress on resolving border disputes.
The Obama administration’s Asian policies are regarded as ‘work in progress’, but there is unease in New Delhi that the announced US plan to pullout of Afghanistan in 2011 could have sent the wrong messages. New Zealand comment was that it was hard to envisage any substantial lowering of the US regional presence given the huge political and economic investments that would be put at risk.
There was agreement the bilateral relationship was comfortable but underdeveloped. It could no longer be adequately defined by admiration for what Sir Edmund Hillary had achieved and a mutual fondness for cricket. Agreement in early 2009 to enter into free trade negotiations had the potential to have the same positive catalytic effect on two-way ties as New Zealand had experienced with China; current trade with India being ten per cent that with China. Both parties have serious work to do to lift the level of engagement. This was a good note on which to conclude the dialogue, together with agreement to meet again in 2010.
- by Brian Lynch, director of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs
