US-China ties crucial for Asia’s security
Shifts in the global balance of power, such as we can see in the US-China relationship between an emboldened China and a United States distracted by economic troubles, are harbingers of turbulent times ahead, says The Economist foreign editor Edward Carr.
After “a pretty good decade” in the relationship, Mr Carr predicts an increasingly testy diplomatic and international security climate epitomised by niggling flare-ups like the recent diplomatic and trade row between China and key US ally Japan over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands.
He told a full Wellington auditorium that countries in the Asian region needed to be watchful of what former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger described (in reference to the British-German relationship before WWI) as “a drift to war”, something that is characterised by an ongoing series of disputes, distrust and tensions that permanently degrade the relationship between two states.
“I’m not predicting a war in Asia but such transitions of power as we are seeing now are very dangerous times,” said Mr Carr who was in Wellington as a guest of the Asia New Zealand Foundation.
“I’m a bit pessimistic but that’s what you get from journalists,” he said at a forum organised by the Centre for Strategic Studies and the New Zealand Centre for Contemporary China Research at Victoria University Wellington.
He warned that Australia was in an unenviable position in its relationships with both China and the US, but noted that other countries were also in the same situation, particularly South Korea and Japan. He quoted Australian defence analyst Huge White: “It’s difficult if your security is coming from one country and your economy is coming from another.”
From New Zealand’s perspective, “you would desperately want the US and China to get on. Otherwise the world becomes a scarier place and a much colder climate”.
He said three main factors are influencing the relationship between China and the US: Chinese public opinion; US foreign policy towards China; and the modernisation of the Chinese military.
It has been observed that millions of Chinese netizens are reacting to news events such as Japan’s clash with China over the disputed islands; the outpourings of online nationalism are being noted by China’s leaders and that in turn is shaping the leadership’s actions.
After two hundred years of colonial humiliation by European powers, China is assuming its place in the world. “Remember this is not a country that is aspiring, it is a country that is being restored.”
Meanwhile American policy towards China has been based on twin fronts – engaging with China, hoping it will attain a level of power and stability with which it is content, while hedging against in the event this doesn’t happen. But the US still sees its engagement with China largely on American terms and this will become more difficult as China becomes more assertive.
Mr Carr said part of the problem was that US economic policy was undermining US foreign policy. This is due to a number of factors including a long-standing disagreement over China’s exchange rate, issues of intellectual property protection, a toughening in the Chinese business environment for foreigners and the massive trade imbalance in China’s favour.
The other concerning issue in the balance of power is China’s enhanced defence capabilities that can now threaten American military supremacy in Asia. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army have been focusing on missile and submarine defences, as well as anti-space and cyber weapons, to achieve at least a tactical parity with American forces on the western side of the Pacific. “The idea is to deny US ships the freedom to operate off China’s coast.”
China’s growing assertiveness over disputes in the South China Sea was a source for concern at the 2010 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, and led to a somewhat tense bilateral encounter between the two governments’ senior defence representatives at that annual security forum.
Mr Carr said there were two things the region could do to try and prevent increasing tensions reaching a potential flashpoint between China on one side and on the other, the US or any of China’s Asian neighbours, including ASEAN countries which are finding themselves in disagreements with Chinese territorial aims in the South China Sea.
He said Asia needs “rules of the road” to prevent harassment of military, shipping or fishing traffic at sea. A code of conduct would greatly reduce misunderstanding that could lead to conflict.
The East Asia Summit and other regional institutions could also play a part in diffusing territorial tensions but he said at present there were too many multilateral organisations and linkages in the region. “Fewer but better quality meetings would be better”.
Mr Carr has been examining the long-term impact of China's emergence as a great power upon security in Asia, in preparation for a special report that will be published by The Economist in December 2010.
Edward Carr joined The Economist as a science correspondent in 1987. He has also worked at the Financial Times. He returned to The Economist in 2005 and was business affairs editor for several years before taking up his appointment as foreign editor in 2009.
- by Charles Mabbett
Images from Wikimedia Commons:
1) Lt Gen Zhang Qinsheng, commander of the Guangzhou military region, visits the
control room of USS submarine Santa Fe.
2) A map of the location of the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands in the South
China Sea.
3) General Ma Xiaotian, Deputy Chief of General Staff, People's Liberation Army,
addresses the Shangri-La Dialogue 2010
4) Two Chinese fishing trawlers purposely block the path of a US Navy ship
in the South China Sea