Mr Michael Powles - Tokyo, September 2009

Autumn Leaves in Japan

Cooler weather in Tokyo than during the group’s earlier visits to Beijing and Shanghai was matched by the cool realism of several Japanese interlocutors. The group met with several senior academics who were led in our discussions by Naoko Saiki, Deputy Director General of the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA).

There was strong interest in the question of the outlook for China’s rise and its implications for both its relations with the United States and Japan and for the Asia Pacific region as a whole. In an open and frank exchange, Japanese participants were very cautious about the prospects for China’s peaceful rise and generally were less optimistic in this regard than the New Zealand participants. A concern they underlined was the strength of nationalism among younger Chinese which impeded major improvement in relations between Japan and China. Increased student exchanges between the two countries were noted, however, and this provided some cause for optimism in the longer term.

A point reiterated several times by Japanese participants was the importance of ensuring the full engagement of the United States in the affairs of the Asia Pacific region. Their position on several specific issues, including the various options for additions or variations to regional architecture that are currently being considered, was heavily influenced by this concern. Members of the Japanese delegation were positive on the question of New Zealand’s continuing engagement in wider regional institutions.

Understandably, Japanese participants were reluctant at this early stage to predict the precise impact on Japanese foreign policy of the country’s recent change of government. Nothing was said that supported current speculation the new government’s determination to change foreign policies in some areas would be thwarted by the country’s powerful bureaucracy.