Thailand’s Royal Politics

Vaughan Yarwood assesses the role of former leader Thaksin Shinawatra, as well as fears for the health of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, in the increasing political tension in Thailand.

When Thailand’s maverick former leader Thaksin Shinawatra took up a post as economic adviser to the Cambodian government in October 2009 the move ratcheted up the political tension in his homeland.

Thaksin’s acceptance of the job offer, which was made by Cambodia’s forthright prime minister, Hun Sen, on the eve of a regional summit, prompted Thailand to recall its ambassador to Phnom Penh and to rethink a recent settlement over a disputed sea border. There was talk of an attempt at extradition.

Thaksin (pictured), a telecoms billionaire and former owner of premier league football club Manchester City, is a deeply divisive political figure. Enduringly popular amongst Thailand’s rural poor, he was the country’s first prime minister to steer an elected government through a full term. However, despite praise for his response to the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and the approval by business leaders of his executive style of government, he has not been immune to criticism. His healthcare and education funding which targeted the poor were lambasted by opponents as blatant attempts at vote buying and he was considered by many to have mishandled rising violence in the country’s largely Muslim southern provinces. Moreover, Thailand’s Corruption Commission found that he had failed to declare all of his wealth and his family’s decision to sell its shares in one of the country’s biggest companies, Shin Corp, to Singaporean investors for NZ$2.7 billion angered urban Thais who felt that he had allowed the country to lose control of an important asset. In September 2006, after more than five years in office, Thaksin was deposed by a military coup while he was out of the country.

Since then he has largely drifted in self-imposed exile, most recently making a home in Dubai, where he has launched several new business ventures. Decried by many among Thailand’s social elite as an opportunist with no respect for human rights, he has nevertheless become the de facto leader of the country’s opposition movement. His supporters, known as ‘red-shirts’, hold regular rallies in the capital, Bangkok, which he often joins by video link, some 41,000 followers have signed up to his internet ‘tweets’ and 3.5 million Thais petitioned Thailand’s King for a pardon of Thaksin’s two-year jail sentence, which was imposed in absentia for corruption.

King Bhumibol Adulyadej has so far ignored the petition, and some speculate that he tacitly approved of the military coup which removed Thaksin. Deeply revered by Thais, the 81-year-old monarch has exercised a stabilising role in Thailand’s chaotic politics and has witnessed no fewer than 17 coups and 26 prime ministers since acceding to the throne in 1946. In 1973, pro democracy protestors attacked by soldiers were allowed to shelter in the palace — a gesture which led to the fall of the government of then prime minister General Thanom Kittakochorn. In 1981 the King resisted army officers who had staged a coup against the prime minister, General Prem Tinsulanond, after which units loyal to the King wrested back control of Bangkok. King Bhumibol again intervened in 1992, opposing the political aspirations of another coup leader, General Suchinda Kraprayoon. The King demanded a fresh election, and democracy was eventually restored.

The recent poor health of King Bhumibol, coming as it does in the midst of deep political unrest, has caused added anxiety for many Thais. The King has been in Siriraj Hospital for several months after being admitted late last year with pneumonia. To date more than a million people have visited the hospital, some travelling across the country to offer flowers and get-well messages.

The question of succession is barely mentioned in Thailand, whose severe lèse majesté laws, designed to prevent ‘offence to the dignity of the monarch’ stifle debate, and doubts about the abilities of the presumed heir, Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn, are not voiced publicly. Last year the Thai information and communications ministry claimed to have shut down some 2,000 websites which it said had violated the lèse majesté laws. In any event the succession is not necessarily straightforward. The country’s constitution leaves scope for the King’s 19-member Privy Council to designate an heir. Nor can the country expect the monarchy to be immutable. Former prime minister Anand Panyarachun describes the King’s authority as ‘reserve power’ which is effective because of its restrained and judicious use. He notes that it has been accumulated through a lifetime of service and cannot simply be inherited or passed on.

Thaksin did nothing to reassure fellow Thais when in an interview with the Times newspaper in November he spoke of the possibility of a ‘shining’ new age dawning after the era of the ailing present King. 'When the time comes, I think he will be able to perform’, said Thaksin who, the full transcript of the interview shows, was nevertheless careful to stress his deep loyalty to King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

It is clear that Thaksin, who is highly critical of what he calls ‘the palace circle’, entertains the possibility of a return to political life in Thailand and that his remarks can be seen as building bridges to the future monarch.

‘The Crown Prince may not be as popular as His Majesty the King’, Thaksin told the Times. ‘However, he will have fewer problems because the palace circle will be smaller... He had education abroad and he is young — I think he understands the modern world’.

- by Vaughan Yarwood

Fact Box: Battle of the Shirts

Thaksin’s allies lost power in December 2008 to the Democratic Party, headed by the English-born, Oxford-educated Abhisit Vejjajiva, following a series of questionable court rulings. Thaskin’s supporters, the ‘red-shirts’ — formally the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) — took to the streets of the capital in March 2009 in a series of protests aimed at what they saw as an assault on democracy by the country’s urban and military elite.

The ‘yellow-shirts’, otherwise known as the Peoples’ Alliance for Democracy (PAD), are equally animated in their opposition to Thaksin. Led by media baron Sondhi Limthongkul and former general Chamlong Srimuang, who has close ties to the most senior court advisor, they make much of their royalist sympathies — yellow is the king’s colour. They initiated the street protests that led to the military coup of 2006 and in 2009 staged a series of sit-ins, including a week-long one in November that paralysed Bangkok’s two airports, damaging the tourism industry. The protests, along with the court ruling against the ruling party enabled the Democrats to form a coalition government. Having achieved their goal they have ended their protests, but given the growing discontent among the red-shirts renewed street activism may be just a matter of time.

- by Vaughan Yarwood

Please note that the views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the views of Asia:NZ.

Photos, sourced in Wikimedia Commons under a Creative Commons licence, are:

1) Thaksin Shinawatra

2) Protester showing a red banner "Liberate The Nation, for democracy."

3) Monument to King Bhumibol Adulyadej in Phitsanulok

Article uploaded: 10 February 2010