Indonesia’s evolving democracy

Asia:NZ contributor Vaughan Yarwood analyses the recent election in the world's most populous Muslim-majority nation.

Please note that the views expressed by the author of this feature do not necessarily reflect the views of Asia:NZ.

Days before Indonesia’s 8 July 2009 presidential elections the website decisioncare.org was picking former president Megawati Sukarnoputri as the likely winner — apparently, several of her natal planets were lined up ‘along the Cancer-Capricorn axis close to eclipse orb points’. The site also forecast that the poll would go to a second round.

Wrong, as it happened, on both counts. Contrary to the astrological predictions, but in line with most earlier opinion surveys, the country’s incumbent president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, (SBY for short), garnered a convincing 60 per cent of the vote, obviating the need for a costly second ballot.

A former army general who came to office in 2004 on a platform of fighting corruption, the mild-mannered Yudhoyono cemented his credentials during his first five-year term by allowing the trial and imprisonment of a number of politicians, high-ranking officials, big bankers and business leaders by the country’s Corruption Eradication Agency (KPK). He also brought peace to the restive province of Aceh and reformed the military, which enjoyed extraordinary power under the Suharto regime, redefining its political and social role and bringing it under civilian control.

Most tellingly, the 59-year-old president presided over an era of impressive economic performance. The US$433 billion economy achieved a commendable 6 per cent growth in 2007-08 and 4.4 per cent growth during the first quarter of 2009, at a time when neighbouring economies were severely contracting. Since 2004 Indonesia’s per capita gross national product (GNP) has almost doubled — from US$1,200 to US$2,300 — and the country has achieved the notable feat of repaying all of its International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans ahead of schedule.

All of which, in the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation, has served to weaken the appeal of Islamic parties. All three parties who gained enough votes in the April 2009 parliamentary elections to contest the recent presidential elections — Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party, the Golkar party of vice-president-turned-opponent Jusuf Kalla and Megawati’s Democratic Party for Struggle — are secular.

True, Golkar plastered billboards with images of the wives of their presidential and vice-presidential candidates wearing Muslim headscarves, or jilbabs. And earlier those same women collectively published a book titled Devout Wives of Future Leaders. But the attempt to harness religious symbols to win votes failed to gain traction. ‘There are so many more important issues that should be addressed’, said Siti Musdah Mulia, a professor of Islamic studies at Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University, and herself a jilbab wearer. ‘Why this one?’.

Voters appeared to agree. The fact that neither the wife of president Yudhoyono nor of his new running mate, the respected economist and central bank governor Boediono, wore headscarves seemed not to count against them. This is perhaps a reflection of the fact that Indonesia does not have a tradition of Islamic dress. The jilbab has become popular only since the fall in 1998 of president Suharto, who tightly controlled Islamic groups.

Though all secular party candidates in the parliamentary elections portrayed themselves as good Muslims, Islamic parties fared poorly because they emphasised Islamic values over good governance, said Mohammad Anwar of the International Centre for Islam and Pluralism. People were more concerned about ‘how to solve economic problems, how to solve lack of law enforcement, how to create good governance’, he added.

Sunny Tanuwidjaj, of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, noted that secular parties had nonetheless embraced some Islamic issues. ‘They are moving to the right of the spectrum of ideology... [and] challenging the base of the traditional Islamic parties’.

More impressive than Yudhoyono’s triumph over his opponents, however, were the circumstances surrounding his reelection. Despite complaints of fraudulent voter lists, the elections were considered free and fair, with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies reporting that it found no evidence of ‘systematic or massive fraud’.

In 2004, Yudhoyono won the country’s first ever direct presidential election. That he not only presided over an era of political and economic stability, but took on both entrenched corruption and widespread poverty and emerged strong enough to win a second term — with the provocative slogan ‘More of the Same’ — has led observers to style Indonesia as the region’s political role model. The fact that few international monitors were needed this time around was taken by many, including Paul Rowland, regional representative of the National Democratic Institute in Jakarta, as evidence that the country was ‘moving in the right direction’.

However, no one should underestimate the challenges involved in governing a country that has inadequate infrastructure across its 17,000 islands, a determined separatist movement in resource-rich Papua and 100 million of its citizens below the poverty line. Nor one in which radical Islamic groups such as Indonesia’s Ulama Council continue to exert pressure on government policy.

In the words of political analyst and former presidential spokesman Wimar Witoelar: ‘this is the time when people must really begin to feel that democracy is a good thing. The next term will be about establishing the long-term presence of democracy in Indonesia’.

- by Vaughan Yarwood

Fact Box: Contenders for Power

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono won his first election in 2004 after a runoff against the incumbent Megawati Sukarnoputri. He secured a second term (the limit permitted under Indonesia’s constitution), not least because he managed to avoid the political and economic scandals that had dogged earlier presidents and was seen as a steady hand on the helm.

His rivals, neither of them lightweights, had no answers to voter satisfaction with the state of the country’s economy. Both Kalla and Megawati damaged any chance of success through their choice of running mates. Kalla opted for Wiranto, a retired general and a former adjutant commander-in-chief of the Indonesian Armed Forces under Suharto. Megawati went with Prabowo Subianto, another retired general and a former in-law of Suharto. Both men have questionable human rights records and are currently barred from entering the United States.

The final numbers: Yudhoyono,  60.80 percent (73.9m votes); Megawati, 26.79 percent (32.5m votes); Kalla, 12.41 per cent (15.1m votes).

- Vaughan Yarwood