Asia looks to a nuclear future

In the second of a two-part series on nuclear energy issues in the region, we look at the future of nuclear power across Asia. This follows on from an initial article on the nuclear dilemma in disaster-struck Japan.

In late May 2011 the leaders of China, Japan and South Korea met in Tokyo in a show of solidarity following the March earthquake and tsunami that destroyed Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant and left more than 24,000 people dead or missing. At the close of the two-day summit, Premier Wen Jiabao, Prime Minister Naoto Kan and President Lee Myung-bak issued a joint statement pledging to work more closely and transparently on nuclear issues.

“We decided to strengthen cooperation in information sharing. In addition, we also decided to start discussion on establishing early notification framework in case of emergency and exchanging experts,” the leaders said.

Previously, both China and South Korea had expressed concern that leaks from Japan’s damaged nuclear power plant might be contaminating the region’s food supplies.

In the wake of Fukushima, Japan is expected to rely more heavily on imported coal and gas from Australia and Indonesia – at least until domestic renewable energy sources are further developed. The catastrophe also prompted China to suspend approvals for all new nuclear plants pending a review of safety rules and to order an inspection of existing reactors for potential dangers. Other countries have followed suit, prompting speculation that the tide may be turning for nuclear power in Asia.

Vlado Vivoda of Australia’s Griffith University, for example, wrote in East Asia Forum in April 2011: “It is unlikely that Asia’s emerging economies, such as Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam or Bangladesh, which had planned to build nuclear reactors, will go down that path. At best, their projects will be delayed by a decade.”

Taiwan typifies Asia’s nuclear energy risks. The island has a much higher density of nuclear power plants than Japan and two of its three existing plants are five to seven km from the Shanjiao Fault. A fourth, under construction, is less than five km from six currently inactive faults. Moreover, the earthquake resistance of Taiwan’s plants is far lower than Japan’s, prompting Yoichi Kikuchi, a Japanese nuclear power plant specialist, to warn that given the geographical similarities of the two countries their plants may have similar structure-related problems.

Taipei had been adamant that its fourth nuclear power plant would be commissioned on schedule later this year to celebrate the centenary of the founding of the Republic of China, despite fears that its rushed construction might court disaster. Tellingly, the Chernobyl nuclear plant accident in Ukraine (the only one beside Fukushimato to be rated 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale) occurred after the design and materials for one reactor were altered and safety checks skipped to meet a similar construction deadline. In March 2011, however, Taiwan’s Premier Wu Den-yih appeared to back down, with the Taipei Times reporting that he had delayed the plant’s opening, “which will now not be the end of this year”, to enable a thorough safety inspection.

Southeast Asia has no commissioned nuclear power plants, but Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam all have plans to introduce them in the near future despite frequently being subjected to potentially damaging natural events such as earthquakes, monsoons, landslides and tropical storms.

In an apparent contradiction of Vivoda’s prediction, the chair of the Vietnam Atomic Energy Commission, Vuong Huu Tan, has said publicly that the emergency in Japan is unlikely to shake his country’s determination to build eight or more nuclear plants, incorporating “advanced nuclear power technology”. According to Vuong, Vietnam is to begin work on its first nuclear plant by 2014.

Thailand intends building up to five such plants by 2025. Thai government spokesperson Panitan Wattanayagorn says that only technical difficulties or feasibility studies would delay the country’s nuclear timetable.

Earthquake- and tsunami-prone Indonesia has committed US$8 bn for two nuclear power plants to put an end to frequent blackouts in the capital, Jakarta and to afford it a measure of energy security in the face of dwindling supplies of oil and coal.

Even the Philippines is looking to join Southeast Asia’s nuclear family by bringing its mothballed Bata’an plant online. The facility is the only nuclear power plant in the region, but was never used due to fears of likely damage as a result of earthquakes and volcanic activity.

Regional specialist Carl Thayer, of Australia’s University of New South Wales, believes the need for power is likely to lock Southeast Asia into the nuclear option. He told the Voice of America that hydro power, biofuels and wind power would not be sufficient to meet future demands.

“The growing size of the economies, rise in consumption, people moving up the scale with gadgets and things in their homes that consume energy, all would have to be held in advance not to lead to these massive demands for energy.”

Even the bearish Vivoda concedes that India, South Korea and China are likely to persevere with their nuclear programmes, though with an emphasis on improved safety features for existing plants and the introduction of less problematic high-temperature gas-cooled reactors.

According to the World Nuclear Association, South Korea derives 35 percent of its energy from nuclear power plants and intends lifting that to 59 percent by 2030. India’s commitment to nuclear energy is underlined by recently signed multi-billion dollar agreements with the United States which leaves little room for manoeuvre. It plans a ten-fold increase in nuclear generating capacity over the next two decades to help reduce its dependency on fossil fuels.

China’s Communist Party is even more reliant on nuclear energy to fuel the economic growth that underpin’s its legitimacy. The country’s electricity use is increasing by 12 percent a year and it currently has 13 reactors online with dozens more planned.

Professor TS Gopi Rethinaraj of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy told CNN days after the March earthquake and tsunami: “My feeling is that governments in this region don’t see an alternative to nuclear power to keep economic growth going.”

However Stuart Burns, wrote in oilprice.com in April 2011: “Perversely, while many countries in Asia have invested heavily in nuclear power, the region is better placed than almost anywhere to make use of geothermal power.”

Burns points to Indonesia, which has some 40 percent of the world’s geothermal reserves. The challenge, he says, is finance. One estimate suggests that one megawatt of geothermal energy requires an investment of US$3.5 million, compared with just a third the amount for coal energy.

“Maybe, like hydro-electricity, geothermal is a power source that deserves state assistance to get it up to critical mass. Certainly Asia is well placed to take a lead. In addition to the naturally occurring resources, industry in the area is technologically capable of the challenge,” he says.

A growing nuclear family

Asia is the main area of the globe where nuclear energy is growing appreciably. Nuclear generating capacity in Western Europe and North America, by contrast, has been flat for a number of years.

• East and South Asia has 112 nuclear power reactors online, with 37 under construction and a further 84 planned and some 180 under consideration (as at April 2010).

• The region has some 56 research reactors in 14 countries. New Zealand and Singapore are the only significant Pacific Rim nations without research reactors.

• India is a pioneer of the thorium fuel cycle, which uses the naturally abundant thorium isotope and is claimed to “enhance proliferation resistance”.

- by Vaughan Yarwood

Photos: (top to bottom)
1. Fukushima Daiichi fire, Japan
2. Daya Bay nuclear power plant, China
3.Matsukawa geotermal power plant, Japan